by: Michelle Mosiere

Australia’s higher education sector has completed one of the most dramatic cycles in its history with consecutive enrolment declines in 2020–2022 and sustained double-digit recovery in 2023–2025.

Key insights:

• Offshore visa lodgements are up 31% versus pre-pandemic figures.
• Onshore grant rates are down 8.1%.
• Significant variations exist in approval rates by country.
• China enjoys over 90% visa approvals compared to 55.6% in Pakistan.
• Of new commencements, 60% are overseas students.

After 3 consecutive years of contraction, Australia’s higher education sector has entered a sustained recovery phase.

Between 2020 and 2022, enrolments declined sharply, including a 12.4% drop in 2021. From 2023 onwards, growth returned decisively. A 21.5% increase in 2023 was followed by 14% in 2024 and 10% in 2025. This is not just a rebound. It is a structural reset.

Australia remains a highly attractive destination for international students. Offshore visa lodgements have grown 31% compared to pre-pandemic levels, reaching over 90,000 applications in 2025–2026.

Contextualised data sets confirm not only that global demand is stronger than ever, but that the growth engine is offshore. For example, new overseas student commencements total 117,500, which account for 60% of all sector-wide commencements.

Onshore applications, while recovered from pandemic lows, show only marginal growth compared to pre-pandemic levels. This is attributable to declining grant rates and increasing levels of scrutiny. While offshore grant rates are still relatively stable (89%), onshore approval rates have declined significantly from 98.3% to 90.3%.

Economically and strategically, international education continues to be central to an ecosystem in which demand is strong and growth is sustained. That said, regulatory scrutiny is sharper and market risk is uneven, so institutions that align recruitment strategy with visa risk settings and diversified market exposure are likely to position themselves well for the next phase of growth.

Contact us via info@dvesolutions.com.au or 1800 870 677 for institution-specific advice and support in strategic business continuity planning.